Monarch Castle Technologies
Financial Intelligence
MODEL: CSI-ENGINE-V3 FEED: LIVE SYSTEM ONLINE
SPY 35
QQQ 34
^GDAXI 28
^FCHI 39
^N225 36
000001.SS 26
^HSI 28
XU100.IS 37
^VIX 80
TLT 53
GLD 74
DX-Y.NYB 41
SPY 35
QQQ 34
^GDAXI 28
^FCHI 39
^N225 36
000001.SS 26
^HSI 28
XU100.IS 37
^VIX 80
TLT 53
GLD 74
DX-Y.NYB 41
Cloudy&Shiny Index
41.8
CLOUDY | Neutral
Sentiment Gauge
0 FEAR50 NEUTRAL100 GREED
48H Composite Trend
IndexSmoothed
24H Forecast Path
Base: 41.6 -0.2 (CLOUDY)
Bear 39.7 | Bull 43.5 Spread 3.8
Regime Transition 24H
STORMY
0.0%
CLOUDY
100.0%
SHINY
0.0%
Most Likely: CLOUDY
Forecast Driver Waterfall
Stock
-0.01
Crypto
-0.13
VIX-Inv
-0.08
Total Delta -0.22
Stock Sentiment
Crypto Sentiment
VIX Inverse
Methodology and Weights
Score = (Stock x 0.40) + (Crypto x 0.30) + ((100 - VIX norm) x 0.30)
Stock sentiment and Crypto fear/greed are normalized to 0-100.
VIX is normalized to 0-100 over rolling history, then inverted so higher means risk-on.
Regime bands: 0-20 STORMY, 21-80 CLOUDY, 81-100 SHINY.
Stock Component
40.0%
Crypto Component
30.0%
Inverse VIX
30.0%
US Basket
32.7%
Asia Basket
26.9%
Europe Basket
10.4%
1D Delta
+0.6
Day-over-day mood shift
7D Delta
+8.1
Weekly regime movement
Intraday Vol
0.30
24h standard deviation
Component Spread
62.2
Stock/Crypto/VIX divergence
Momentum 6H
+0.0
Short-horizon acceleration
Backtest MAE 1H
0.25
Rolling out-of-sample error
Backtest MAE 6H
0.83
Mid-horizon forecast error
Backtest MAE 24H
1.85
Daily horizon error
Direction Hit 24H
55.5%
N=220 rolling windows
Forecast Confidence Dashboard
Coverage 24H
67.7%
Bias 24H
+0.03
Error Drift
-0.43
Asset Performance vs 60-Day MA
S&P 500
SPY
BELOW MA
34.8
RSI: 43 Wt: 16.4%
Nasdaq 100
QQQ
BELOW MA
33.8
RSI: 42 Wt: 16.4%
DAX
^GDAXI
BELOW MA
27.5
RSI: 45 Wt: 5.4%
CAC 40
^FCHI
BELOW MA
39.0
RSI: 51 Wt: 3.7%
Nikkei 225
^N225
BELOW MA
36.2
RSI: 48 Wt: 5.1%
Shanghai Comp
000001.SS
BELOW MA
26.5
RSI: 34 Wt: 21.3%
Hang Seng
^HSI
BELOW MA
28.5
RSI: 42 Wt: 0.4%
BIST 100
XU100.IS
BELOW MA
37.1
RSI: 49 Wt: 1.4%
VIX Fear Index
^VIX
ABOVE MA
80.2
RSI: 51 Wt: 7.5%
US 20Y Treasury
TLT
BELOW MA
53.1
RSI: 50 Wt: 7.5%
Gold
GLD
BELOW MA
73.6
RSI: 38 Wt: 7.5%
US Dollar Index
DX-Y.NYB
ABOVE MA
41.3
RSI: 54 Wt: 7.5%
Market Breadth Snapshot
Bullish 2
Neutral 2
Bearish 8
Feed Reliability
Stock LIVE 100.0%
Crypto LIVE 100.0%
VIX LIVE 100.0%
Overall Score: 100.0%
Data Age: 0.0 min
Fallback Rate: 0.0% | Failure Rate: 0.0%
Signal Board
Regime
Neutral
CLOUDY
Transition Prob
S 0.0% | C 100.0% | G 0.0%
CLOUDY
Momentum 6H
Stable
+0.0
Forecast 24H
Driver Crypto | S -0.0 C -0.1 V -0.1
41.6
Forecast Spread
sigma 1.01 | slope +0.03/h
3.8
Backtest 24H
RMSE 2.52 | Hit 55.5% | N 220
1.85
Intraday Vol
Calm
0.30
Component Spread
Consensus Low
62.2
Market Breadth
Bull 2 | Neutral 2 | Bear 8
-50.0
Historical Feed
Apr 04 00:00
CLOUDY
41.8
Composite mood
Apr 03 00:00
CLOUDY
41.2
Composite mood
Apr 02 00:00
CLOUDY
42.1
Composite mood
Apr 01 00:00
CLOUDY
40.2
Composite mood
Mar 31 00:00
CLOUDY
39.4
Composite mood
Mar 30 00:00
CLOUDY
32.7
Composite mood
Mar 29 00:00
CLOUDY
32.9
Composite mood
Component Snapshot
Stock Sentiment41.4
Crypto Fear and Greed11.0
Inverse VIX Score73.2
Composite - Stock Gap+0.4