Monarch Castle Technologies
Financial Intelligence
MODEL: CSI-ENGINE-V3 FEED: LIVE SYSTEM ONLINE
SPY 91
QQQ 100
^GDAXI 75
^FCHI 58
^N225 100
000001.SS 51
^HSI 50
XU100.IS 45
^VIX 92
TLT 50
GLD 65
DX-Y.NYB 51
SPY 91
QQQ 100
^GDAXI 75
^FCHI 58
^N225 100
000001.SS 51
^HSI 50
XU100.IS 45
^VIX 92
TLT 50
GLD 65
DX-Y.NYB 51
Cloudy&Shiny Index
64.9
CLOUDY | Neutral
Sentiment Gauge
0 FEAR50 NEUTRAL100 GREED
48H Composite Trend
IndexSmoothed
24H Forecast Path
Base: 65.0 +0.1 (CLOUDY)
Bear 63.2 | Bull 66.8 Spread 3.6
Regime Transition 24H
STORMY
0.0%
CLOUDY
100.0%
SHINY
0.0%
Most Likely: CLOUDY
Forecast Driver Waterfall
Stock
-0.11
Crypto
-0.01
VIX-Inv
+0.18
Total Delta +0.06
Stock Sentiment
Crypto Sentiment
VIX Inverse
Methodology and Weights
Score = (Stock x 0.40) + (Crypto x 0.30) + ((100 - VIX norm) x 0.30)
Stock sentiment and Crypto fear/greed are normalized to 0-100.
VIX is normalized to 0-100 over rolling history, then inverted so higher means risk-on.
Regime bands: 0-20 STORMY, 21-80 CLOUDY, 81-100 SHINY.
Stock Component
40.0%
Crypto Component
30.0%
Inverse VIX
30.0%
US Basket
32.7%
Asia Basket
26.9%
Europe Basket
10.4%
1D Delta
+0.0
Day-over-day mood shift
7D Delta
+2.0
Weekly regime movement
Intraday Vol
0.44
24h standard deviation
Component Spread
66.5
Stock/Crypto/VIX divergence
Momentum 6H
+0.0
Short-horizon acceleration
Backtest MAE 1H
0.12
Rolling out-of-sample error
Backtest MAE 6H
0.51
Mid-horizon forecast error
Backtest MAE 24H
1.08
Daily horizon error
Direction Hit 24H
56.4%
N=220 rolling windows
Forecast Confidence Dashboard
Coverage 24H
86.8%
Bias 24H
-0.23
Error Drift
-0.57
Asset Performance vs 60-Day MA
S&P 500
SPY
ABOVE MA
91.3
RSI: 68 Wt: 16.4%
Nasdaq 100
QQQ
ABOVE MA
100.0
RSI: 67 Wt: 16.4%
DAX
^GDAXI
ABOVE MA
75.0
RSI: 61 Wt: 5.4%
CAC 40
^FCHI
ABOVE MA
57.9
RSI: 58 Wt: 3.7%
Nikkei 225
^N225
ABOVE MA
100.0
RSI: 67 Wt: 5.1%
Shanghai Comp
000001.SS
ABOVE MA
51.3
RSI: 33 Wt: 21.3%
Hang Seng
^HSI
BELOW MA
49.9
RSI: 24 Wt: 0.4%
BIST 100
XU100.IS
BELOW MA
45.4
RSI: 26 Wt: 1.4%
VIX Fear Index
^VIX
BELOW MA
92.4
RSI: 27 Wt: 7.5%
US 20Y Treasury
TLT
BELOW MA
50.2
RSI: 52 Wt: 7.5%
Gold
GLD
BELOW MA
65.3
RSI: 32 Wt: 7.5%
US Dollar Index
DX-Y.NYB
BELOW MA
50.5
RSI: 67 Wt: 7.5%
Market Breadth Snapshot
Bullish 6
Neutral 6
Bearish 0
Feed Reliability
Stock LIVE 100.0%
Crypto LIVE 100.0%
VIX LIVE 100.0%
Overall Score: 100.0%
Data Age: 0.0 min
Fallback Rate: 0.0% | Failure Rate: 0.0%
Signal Board
Regime
Neutral
CLOUDY
Transition Prob
S 0.0% | C 100.0% | G 0.0%
CLOUDY
Momentum 6H
Stable
+0.0
Forecast 24H
Driver VIX-Inv | S -0.1 C -0.0 V +0.2
65.0
Forecast Spread
sigma 1.00 | slope +0.03/h
3.6
Backtest 24H
RMSE 1.32 | Hit 56.4% | N 220
1.08
Intraday Vol
Calm
0.44
Component Spread
Consensus Low
66.5
Market Breadth
Bull 6 | Neutral 6 | Bear 0
+50.0
Historical Feed
May 30 00:00
CLOUDY
64.9
Composite mood
May 29 00:00
CLOUDY
64.9
Composite mood
May 28 00:00
CLOUDY
63.5
Composite mood
May 27 00:00
CLOUDY
63.6
Composite mood
May 26 00:00
CLOUDY
64.5
Composite mood
May 25 00:00
CLOUDY
63.7
Composite mood
May 24 00:00
CLOUDY
62.0
Composite mood
Component Snapshot
Stock Sentiment77.9
Crypto Fear and Greed23.0
Inverse VIX Score89.5
Composite - Stock Gap-13.0